According to nonpartisan polling analysts and experts, no one has received such a massive lead in the polls during the early primary season compared to former President Donald Trump. With multiple criminal indictments under his belt and his former vice president running against him, Trump has still managed to crush the Republican primary field in the polls.
As the frontrunner and a former president, Trump is dominating the early primary season in an unprecedented way. He maintains a strong lead in key early primary state polls. Trump holds the lead in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by 23 points, 28 points, 30 points and 23 points, respectively.
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As the frontrunner and a former president, Trump is dominating the early primary season in an unprecedented way. He maintains a strong lead in key early primary state polls. Trump holds the lead in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina by 23 points, 28 points, 30 points and 23 points, respectively.
Based on polls conducted between June 10 and June 26, Trump is leading the GOP field by over 30 points, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP). The only other candidate receiving noticeable support is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but it remains consistently lower than support for Trump.
Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan polling analyst at the University of Virginia, said, “This GOP primary is truly unprecedented, because Trump is not technically an incumbent, but Republican voters seem to be treating him as at least a quasi-incumbent.”
“This primary is similar to 2016 in the sense that the field is large, meaning that it’ll be hard for a non-Trump to consolidate the non-Trump supporters,” Kondik continued.
GOP polling analyst Jon McHenry agreed with Trump’s unprecedented performance in the Republican primary. He even argued that Trump appears to be reshaping of the party.
“This really is a unique cycle, at least since we’ve used primaries and caucuses as the primary vehicle to nominate our presidential candidates,” McHenry began. “In that time, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose a reelection and run again, much less lead in the polls.”
“President Trump’s lead right now is in part a testament to the extent to which he reshaped the party from a conservative party to a populist party,” he added.
“With the New York charges in particular being seen as politically motivated and questionable legally — with a very different context than holding top secret documents in an unsecure location — the Republicans who might have been ready to move on to a fresh face have at least for now rallied back to the former president,” McHenry said.
“Is there a comparable election? Nope. And that’s fine,” Nathan Klein, pollster for OnMessage Inc., said. “The one thing Americans, and especially the GOP primary electorate, don’t want is to do things the way they have been done.”
2024 GOP Primary Polling Trends among likely voters by Echelon Insights (A/B)
January
Trump — 36% (+2)
DeSantis — 34%Feb.
Trump — 46% (+15)
DeSantis — 31%March
Trump — 49% (+23)
DeSantis — 26%May
Trump — 49% (+30)
DeSantis — 19%JUNE
Trump — 49% (+33)
DeSantis — 16% pic.twitter.com/Ve9hn4RWgs— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 4, 2023
John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of the polling firm McLaughlin & Associates, said Trump’s lead in the Republican primary is “historic.”
“Compared to Trump’s success — on the economy, on national security, on the border and other issues — Biden’s failures are glaring, and there’s really a lot of buyer’s remorse,” McLaughlin said. “President Trump is leading in the national popular vote, and Republicans have not seen that since 2004.”
“This is historic in multiple ways, but I think the epitome of it is that Joe Biden has indicted his political opponent, his leading political opponent — that’s never happened in American history. That’s what happens in communist countries,” McLaughlin continued.
Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung also acknowledged the unprecedented level of Trump’s performance in the polls. “President Trump continues to dominate in poll after poll — both nationally and statewide,” Cheung said. “He is the only person who is beating Joe Biden by significant margins because voters know President Trump’s return to the White House means a strong economy, a secure border, and a safer America.”
